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Only 270 Days Left: The End of Politics
By Mark Grueter
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Seven more of these goddamn statewide elections took place on Tuesday. And by early Wednesday morning some of us were still talking seriously about what happened. Chris Matthews and Pat Buchanan were up, so were Mo Rocca, Tucker Carlson and Larry King. Two of the elections were “caucuses” and five were “primaries,” but the American people don’t give a shit about the distinction and nor do I.
Kerry retained his frontrunner status by winning five of these evil contests. However, things actually got a little interesting because Edwards and Clark each won a state. Clark eked out a narrow victory over Edwards in Oklahoma while Edwards took his native state of South Carolina rather easily. Why Oklahoma went for Clark as opposed to (say) Missouri, where Clark got only about 5 percent of the vote, is beyond me. Perhaps a CNN’s numbers wizard William Schneider or MSNBC’s hairless scumsucker Frank Luntz can explain it.
Poor Howard Dean lost badly everywhere. Kerry trounced him in every state and even the much-ballyhooed Clark campaign beat Dean in every state except Missouri. Dean’s ardent supporters are still in denial about their candidates’ chances, but that’s only because they’re unusually dimwitted. While in New Hampshire last week, I had a conversation with a Dean zealot who spoke matter-of-factly of a Dean nomination. She then tried to get me removed from the Dean event because I - gasp - confided to her my support for Wesley Clark (though I certainly didn’t advertise it).
Anyway, Edwards and Clark must feel pretty good just to get a W, but it’s hard to envision where they'll go from here. Sure, only 10% of the delegates have been selected, but Kerry has a seemingly unstoppable amount of momentum - “the Big Mo.” Voters like to vote for a winner and there’s no doubting the fact that the states that vote early in the process heavily influence the way most other states vote. It’s a vicious cycle. The air of inevitability surrounding the Kerry campaign continues to expand, instilling discouragement amongst realistic supporters of other candidates.
It’s unfortunate how this thing works. I still say every state should vote on the same day so that all states have equal say over who becomes the nominee. Basically, what has happened this year is that two of the most obscure states in the union (Iowa and New Hampshire) have decided who will win the Democratic nomination. It wasn’t always like this. There used to be a real contest for a party’s nomination. The problem is that party leaders got so sick of all the “infighting” amongst supporters of different candidates that they rigged the nominating process to make sure a candidate was decided early on; they just want a “unified” party. They don’t like bloodbaths or what is also known as democracy in action. They’re trying to destroy division - or the whole notion of politics itself. For instance, in 1972, Democratic candidates McGovern, Muskie, Humphrey, Jackson and others went after each other like mad dogs. The process was uncertain, relatively open, chaotic and, most importantly, democratic. It was not known who would be the nominee until June. In 2004, we already know in early February who the nominee will be. This is extremely significant and indicative of how foul this pseudo-democratic process has become.
By the way, Clark also finished a strong second in Arizona, New Mexico and North Dakota, the only western states to vote thus far. This is interesting. Kerry has shown overwhelming strength in all parts of the country except the South (unless you count Missouri as a southern state, which almost nobody does). Edwards has shown strength in the South but nowhere else. Clark has now shown strength in both the South and the Midwest/West. Clark’s victory, no matter how slight, could really boost him. Voters have always liked him; they just wanted to see if he was actually viable.
For some reason, after 100% of the vote had been counted and Clark led Edwards by over a 1,000 votes in Oklahoma, the media outlets refused to declare Clark the winner for over 3 hours. What were they waiting for? For a few states they declared John Kerry the winner solely based on exit polls, with only zero percent of the precincts having been counted.
It’s also upsetting to see the media frame the race as a two-man contest between Kerry and Edwards. Edwards is the media darling and likely vice-presidential choice but Clark has outperformed Edwards in most of the contests in which they’ve gone head to head. So actually, Clark is running second in this primary campaign with Edwards a close third and Dean a distant fourth. Dean hasn’t won anywhere and he won’t win the nomination. Try, try and try again Howard but then give up - don’t make a fool of yourself. Even the rat-faced Bible-thumper Joe Liebermann knew when to call it quits. The former would-be VP, humiliated everywhere, limped onto the stage Tuesday night to tell everyone what they already knew - that he wouldn’t be able to win the nomination. He was, apparently, the last person to figure this out.
But really the main reason why Clark and Edwards have no chance of overtaking Kerry is that there’s no powerful argument to suggest that they’d be better nominees. Kerry has the experience, credentials and smoothness to thwart Clark and Edwards. One could argue that Kerry is Michael Dukakis all over again, incapable of winning in the south, but that won’t fly because it looks like Kerry won’t need to win anywhere in the south to win the nomination. He also seems more formidable than Dukakis. It’d be much, much different if Dean were still the frontrunner because both Edwards and Clark are better candidates. In fact, Clark got into the race at the moment when Kerry looked like death itself, while Dean was the presumptive nominee. Now, with Kerry the Vietnam hero and tough liberal leading the pack, there’s no obvious case for anyone else. Clark and Edwards are both more likeable in many ways, but that only goes so far.
Washington,
Michigan and Maine are coming up over the weekend. Tennessee and Virginia
vote next Tuesday. The news only gets better for Kerry since Clark, Edwards
and Dean all plan on competing in the upcoming events. A theoretical four-man
race works best for the frontrunner because the anti-Kerry vote gets split.
If only one challenger emerged then Kerry would probably face a much closer
contest. John Kerry, after all, is not an invincible candidate.
However, thoughts on the general election trump all this awful nonsense
about the primary. Cheer up Democrats - you’re looking really
good in November. All John Kerry has to do is hold all the states Gore
won and win one more, that’s it. And Kerry is a far better candidate
than the terrible Gore. Yes, Bush is stronger now too and he’s got
the incumbency advantage so all this forecasts a close election. Suddenly,
Kerry’s choice for VP running mate is vital. John Edwards has already
stated unequivocally that he will not accept it; Wesley Clark seems more
suited for Secretary of Defense or State. Perhaps Kerry chooses Bill Richardson,
the powerful governor of New Mexico - a state that voted for Bush in 2000
but could easily switch over to the Democrats with Richardson on the ticket.
Click here for last week's column.
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Mark Grueter is pursuing a Masters in Liberal Studies at the Graduate Faculty for Political and Social Sciences. He is the Publications Manager and Web Editor for The Canon, the school's student publication and is a contributor to Stop Smiling, a magazine based in Chicago. He lives in Brooklyn, New York. Grueter may be contacted at [email protected].
©
2004 Me Three