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Just 55 Weeks to Go: Advice for the General

By Mark Grueter

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This past week Wesley Clark’s campaign manager, Donnie Fowler, quit because he felt Washington insiders and former Clinton/Gore flunkies were starting to take over the campaign. The strategy has shifted from one that focused on building up grass-roots movements in each state to one that focuses on building up a national reputation centered in Washington, D.C.

Furthermore, it is rumored that the new strategy has Clark shunning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which will take place in January 2004. His new advisers insist that he channel his energies to states where none of the other candidates have a strong foothold. Because Iowa and New Hampshire vote first and generally set off the dominoes, other candidates have been campaigning there for over a year now.

It is believed that Richard Gephardt, because he is a fellow rube from nearby Missouri, has Iowa locked up. And either Dean, former governor of New Hampshire’s neighboring state Vermont, or Kerrey, the Lofty senator from Massachusetts, will take New Hampshire. So why waste time there, where the delegates are scarce, while delegate-rich states like Arizona and South Carolina plead for attention?

Senator Bob Dole was humiliated in the 1996 New Hampshire GOP primary, losing to a rabble-rouser named Buchanan. Clark advisers figure that even if Clark campaigns there he cannot win and it’ll look bad when he doesn’t after all that time and effort. Whereas, if his spinmeisters get the word out early that Clark has no intention to campaign in those two states, then losses effectively will not matter.

Because so few Americans pay attention to the details, it all comes down to perception. The modern campaign must learn how to handle the media. Most voters receive their opinions through the media. If a Clark loss in New Hampshire is considered “relevant” by certain media and political professionals, then it will significantly (and negatively for Clark) affect how people will vote in the ensuing primaries. On the contrary, if the media downplays early losses, and Clark’s still considered a frontrunner because of his national image, then people will vote for him anyway. The sad fact is that people want to vote for a winner, largely because it’s makes them feel better about themselves.

I see only one flaw in this strategy: Clark can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, along with almost everywhere else. He has four months - plenty of time - to raise funds and shake hands in those two relatively small states. He has the magic to win people over. I know New Hampshire swing-voters cast their ballots based on personality, so the only person Clark could possibly lose to is Dean. New Hampshirites like mavericks, independents, outsiders; and only Dean and Clark have done an effective job pretending to fit that image. A respectable second in New Hampshire will in no way tarnish Clark’s national campaign. Remember, Bill Clinton finished second there to Paul Tsongas in 1992. By avoiding Iowa and New Hampshire, Clark runs the risk of destroying his campaign before it even begins. Dismal showings will be recorded and if anyone scores a big victory in either of those two states, it will be very difficult for Clark to rebound. Of course, if the strategy works his advisers will be seen as geniuses, even though I think Clark will win regardless; as long as he doesn’t commit any horrible blunders.

It is troubling to hear that he’s neglecting the Internet movement that inspired his run while turning to the brilliant strategists that ran the Gore 2000 campaign for advice. Wes, drop those hacks and just be yourself.

The nine candidates for the Democratic nomination squared off Thursday night in a debate aired on CNN. Joe Liebermann is unelectable because he talks like an aristocrat, has the hair of George Washington, the face of a leprechaun, and is a pompous ass. Dick Gephardt can’t win because his eyes protrude unnaturally from their sockets and he has a sort of dumb howdy-doody thing happening. Al Sharpton, the funniest of the lot, is out because he’s black and resembles a stereotypical hustler. John Edwards looks like a deer caught in headlights. He goes for the Clintonesque ‘I feel your pain,’ populist shtick, except in this case nobody buys into the act. In fact, the way he was staring at audience members who asked questions was downright creepy and awkward. Let us see, who else? Carol Moseley Braun? Do not make me laugh.

The moderator, along with some of the candidates “went after” Clark for his supposed waffling over the issue of Iraq. They didn’t have the wit to appreciate that General Clark could see the merit of a potential multilateral invasion/operation, unlike Democratic partisans and anti-war lefties. That’s what all the fuss was about. What he has said unequivocally is that Bush needs to be removed in order to save Iraq from ruin. “This is embarrassing,” Clark pleaded to his petty competitors in their feeble attempts at Gotcha!

Dennis Kucinich formally launched his presidential campaign on Monday. This summer Kucinich was laughed off the set of MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews after claiming that Republican Congressman Chris Smith favored the imprisonment of mothers who have abortions (he obviously doesn’t). Matthews scoffed, “You’re desperate” then they cut to little Dennis and it looked like he was about to cry. Anyway, no troll, even if supported by The Nation magazine, will ever be elected President.

And finally, President Bush announced that he might not be able to find the individual that leaked a covert CIA agent’s name to the ghoulish Robert Novak. This means that we’ll never know the truth; he’ll be like the new Deep Throat, similar in that both brought down their respective administrations. Meanwhile, nobody quite knows what the hell is happening in Iraq as Condoleeza Rice assumes command of the adventure from the adored Donald Rumsfeld. Word in Washington is that there is a complete meltdown occurring within the administration. There are no policies and no plans, just people making shit up as they go along, which is intriguingly radical but not very promising. Powell is out even if Bush wins the next election and pigs fly.

The White House initiated a new Iraq PR offensive where they’ll attempt to convince us that things aren’t so bad over there. This won’t work. Bush needs to give a speech to the American people detailing a long-term, feasible strategy that includes international organizations, and he needs to at least attempt to justify the deaths of over 170 soldiers since he declared victory several months ago.

Of course, no one I know is holding their breath.

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Mark Grueter lives in New York City, where he is pursuing his master's in Liberal Studies at the New School University's Graduate Faculty of Political and Social Science.  He can be contacted at [email protected].

© 2003 Me Three